CLINTON vs TRUMP
In the current presidential election, there are new states in play. Some of the old battle ground states are open for a fight, and there are some new ones should be considered in contention for 2016. In reviewing the data from the 2012 election, a lot is revealed about what we can expect during the 2016 presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The Republican Party had an assessment of the results of the 2012 election that they used to create a roadmap to retake the White House. The Democrats thought they had the correct formula since they had gotten more popular votes in 5 of the previous 6 presidential elections. The 2016 presidential election is going to be different than any presidential election in the modern era. Like the Rolling Stones said, “you can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you might get what you need.” I hope this is a time we get what we need.
Because Donald Trump is involved in the race, Pennsylvania, Ohio and maybe even Michigan will be up for grabs. If you look back to the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, North Carolina and Georgia were trending toward the Democrat, Barak Obama. The Democrats actually won North Carolina in 2008. In 2012, the Democrats lost North Carolina by less than 2%. According to exit polls, Obama got just 31% of the white vote in the 2012 election. In my opinion, Hillary Clinton will do much better than Barak Obama for several reasons. These reasons include the fact that Trump is polarizing on women’s issues and white women are likely to vote in their self-interest which is not for Trump. Clinton will gain in that constituent group, most likely more than the additional two percent needed to win. On the other hand, the Democrats may lose when it comes to white males who favor the Republican, Trump. This leads to other changes in North Carolina. It is estimated that the Latino population there has increased by more than 10 percent and the black population has increased by 5 percent. Those demographic changes favor Clinton.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have strengths and weaknesses. Donald Trump’s weakness is that he is loose with the facts. So far, that weakness hasn’t come to bite him in any lasting way. But there are certain groups that will hold him accountable. Donald Trump has discounted those groups and thinks he can either suppress them or have a certain amount come over to his side. He believes that he will get more Latino and Black voters than Mitt Romney did. I am not quite sure how he thinks he will do with the Asian Pacific American population.
I believe Hillary Clinton’s weakness is that she is not inspiring and she is a bit wonky in that she is not concise in her speaking manner. Being a person who has that fault, I understand it very much and I recognize it in others. Donald Trump very much reminds me of Ronald Reagan can really say things that resonate with his base and gets them enthused and riled up to the point that it starts to take on a fever. In this way, he is able to get other people who were not originally in favor of him may start to become in favor of him.
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